Gambling Horse Racing

Mr. X’s Saturday Horsing Around Tips

Another winning week for Mr X with a $30 bonus bet for Zoutori going down to Kemelapasa. Tralee Rose got us a 2nd at $2.80, Masked Crusader was very impressive winning at $2.50 however Hungry Heart was disappointing but the weather that came Saturday afternoon destroyed her chances.

This week Sydney racing continues at Randwick where the rail is out 5m and the track, thanks mainly to the amazing weather most of this week, is going to be racing in the Good 4 or 3 range. In Melbourne we are at the start of the Caulfield carnival with the rail true and expect to be racing in a soft 5 or good 4 range which is ideal. Caulfield usually sees leaders bias a bit on the shorter races and it’s a hard to really come from the tail, however there is a headwind expected in the straight as well.

Melbourne Race 2 – Number 2 – Buffalo River – $25 win (Currently $3.20)

Should jump and lead them here over 1400m 2nd up where he has been 5 times for 2 wins, 1 2nd and 2 3rds and has good form over this distance and at the track. He led and gave a good sight in fast group 1 over 1400m last start, and this is a drop in grade. Nothing else here to challenge him for the lead so expect him to get his own way out in front. I think the 3 is a bit of an unknown and danger.

Melbourne Race 5 – Number 4 – September Run – $25 win (Currently $3.20)

Going against the track bias over shorter distances here but going for the best horse in the race in September Run, on her day she could absolutely blitz this field and after 2 runs at 1000m she steps out to a more suitable 1100m where there should be a bit of pace in the race with a few of her rivals pushing forward and vying for the lead. With the smallish field she shouldn’t be too far off them cornering and fingers crossed producers her turn of foot to run over the top of them. I see the 8 (with no weight) and the 5 as the main dangers here.

Melbourne Race 8 – Number 3 – Tiger of Malay – $10 each way (Currently $11/$3.40)

The 2 best horses (in Anamoe and Artorius) have drawn terribly which opens the race right up and the Tiger draws to get the absolute gun ride in transit out of barrier 1 with his great gate speed he should shoot up and sit just in behind the leader and get a cushy run. He was very game in the Golden Rose last start (where a lot of these come through) and only finished 2.1 lengths off the winner. He is outstanding each way value and doesn’t often run a poor race, just make sure you are cheering the right horse as there are a fair few in the race with the same silks – their hat colour will be the difference. His main dangers are the 1 and 2, but I also expect number 10 to run well.

Melbourne Race 9 – Number 14 – Embolism – $5 each way (Currently $23/$5.50)

The fav in I’m Thunderstruck (11) will be hard to beat but I think this bloke represents amazing value in this race and is 2nd up dropping 6kgs albeit at better grade he did go half decent last time 2nd up in a Group 1 race going down to Lunar Fox (meets here 2kg better off) by less than 1 length. This is a quality field, but I really think he can run a good race and the value jumps out big time. Other than the fav I think that the 4 and the 7 are the main dangers.

Melbourne Race 10 – Number 4 – Defibrillate – $10 each way (Currently $8.50/$2.50)

Another race where we are taking on the short price fav (Floating artist (7) at $2.90) and backing a horse who was unlucky 2nd the last time they met and gets a 4.5kg weight swing on the fav after a run between that race and now where a very good 4th against the shape of the race. Other than the fav I think the 2 (also big weight swing) and the 11 are the main dangers also some value.


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