Gambling Horse Racing

Mr. X’s Saturday horsing around tips

A terrible week for Mr X with New York Baby coming 3rdPondus a poor 4th (as it heads to Cup), Undeniable was a good 2nd then Emerald Kingdom last as a $2.60 fav and Startantes last as well. 

But the excitement is back as we head to Flemington for Christmas Day for punters in Derby Day where there are an amazing 4 Group 1 races and majority of the races have deep fields offering plenty of value for the punters. The weather in Melbourne hasn’t had as much rain as predicted and the track will be a good 4 (likely) and the rail is true. Sydney racing heads to Rosehill for the Golden Eagle where we will likely also see a good track and the rail true, it’s mid 30s out that way today (Friday) and due to be 19 on the day with not much rain due – could be good 3. Sticking to the Melbourne racing this week and looking at a value strategy to try boost the kitty for Cup Day!

Melbourne Race 4 – Number 4 – Brooklyn Hustle – $10win $20 Place (Currently $5.00 / $1.75)

The best thing here is the jockey change of C Williams off after he absolutely butchered a race she should have won with one of the worst rides, replaced by J Mac. She should settle back and have plenty of time to find a run and fly home. She had so much in the tank last start and was stuck behind everything. There should be genuine pace, she hasn’t won here she has been unlucky in 2 of the 3 and has finished close enough each time. Main dangers 2 and 7 

Melbourne Race 5 – Number 8 – Hungry Heart – $5 win,$15 Place (Currently $14 / $4.20)

2 good runs behind Mo’Unga and Verry Elleegant and then a tad disappointing in the Epsom where 3 lengths off the winner on a good track that she likes. Gets the good track here again and her only start here was a maiden 2nd over 1000m but the bigger track should suit her racing style and she has had a trial since that Epsom run. She is great value to run a big race. Main dangers 2, 3 and 9.

Melbourne Race 8 – Number 15 – King Magnus – $5 Win, $15 Place (Currently $23 / $6.00)

Gallant effort last start behind Buffalo River, who he meets 2kg better off and should get a lovely sit mid-field or just off the pace and will be able to swing off them and at least give the backmarkers in Superstorm and Chaillot something to chase. Other than those two (3 and 11) I see the 10 as a massive danger as was luckless last start and drawn and weighted well. 

Melbourne Race 9 – Number 1 – September Run – $10 each way (Currently $6.50 / $2.70)

Melbourne Race 9 – Number 7 – Written Beauty – $5 each way (Currently $15 / $4.40)

Having 2 bets in this race as just couldn’t split these 2 mares, both should settle towards the tail of the field and there should be genuine pace in the race with various leaders here. September Run has been disappointing this time in, but gets back to fav track and distance here where she is unbeaten and 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 starts at the track. The saver on Written Beauty who also has good form down the straight with 1 win from 1 start and is now with Chris Waller and had a recent jump out where she showed something special. Wide open race and see the main dangers as 4, 5 and 11.

Victoria Derby: – Really hard race this year with plenty of chances and Forgot You is a drifting favourite which is no surprise. I think the 4 Gunstock deserves to be favourite and am looking at some value in backing the 2 Tutukaka, 7 Jungle Magnate and 16 Teewaters. Wide open race!

Melbourne Cup: – Stay tuned for a runner by runner and top 4 selections out Tues Morning

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